What do Midland Railway and IBM have in common? The answer is they
were the largest companies by market capitalisation in the UK and the US
when each country reached the apex of its economic dominance in 1914
and 1967 respectively.
Both firms were emblematic of their era. Midland Railway was the
biggest coal hauler in the country that had ushered in the industrial
revolution. IBM was the leading hardware manufacturer at the dawn of the
computer age when American consumers were the envy of the world.But the two examples also highlight how fleeting global hegemony can be.
Few now remember the railway firm, which lost its independence after
the First World War thanks to the Railways Act. IBM may still be a
colossus, but it no longer ranks in the top 20 global companies in
market cap terms.
In fact, when the New York Stock Exchange opens later today, IBM is
also likely to be eclipsed by Alibaba, the company now best symbolising
China’s ascendance on the world stage. The e-commerce giant priced its
IPO in New York last night at $68 per share to the thunderous applause
of global investors.
How gigantic is the deal?
Should the greenshoe be exercised, Alibaba’s flotation will raise $25
billion and rank as the world’s largest, beating Agricultural Bank of
China’s $22.1 billion debut in 2010. When founder Jack Ma rings the
opening bell, Alibaba’s market cap will be $177.5 billion, similar in
size to Samsung Electronics. However, the stock price is expected to be
much higher by closing on its first day, fuelled by newspaper hype and
insistent demand from investors. Enthusiasm for the deal has been
overwhelming, notwithstanding the fact that many investors have placed
inflated orders to try to get some kind of allocation. The frustrated
purchasing power of unallocated institutions, combined with the mass of
retail investors who were unable to get into the IPO at all, could
easily push the stock up into the stratosphere over the coming few days.
...
How is it likely to perform?
What happens to Alibaba after the initial fanfare dies down depends
on what investors believe about its prospects for growth. Shareholders
are unlikely to reap the same upside as investors in rivals Tencent and
Baidu, which both listed a decade ago when they were less than five
years old. Tencent has risen 150-fold since its June 2004 IPO, for
example.
Alibaba is now 15 years old, so can we expect similar growth? There
are numerous jumbo IPOs of companies with relatively mature business
models which have still done well for investors. The most famous is
Visa, which listed in March 2008 and still ranks as the largest IPO on
record by a US firm. It rose 28% on its first day of trading and has
quintupled since then.
...
A century of upside?
Jack Ma has no such qualms about Alibaba’s future. In the company’s
pre-roadshow filing, he wrote a letter to prospective investors
explaining how the company is only at the beginning of a 102-year
journey, that will span three separate centuries from its inception in
1999.
Alibaba is not a mature business, its management says. Rather, its
digital ecosystem will disrupt and transform all that it touches to the
benefit of its Chinese customers and, increasingly, its global ones too.
A few years ago, Alibaba identified three pillar industries. In many
respects it has only made inroads into the first one – e-commerce.
...
And outside China?
For many Chinese companies, their hallmark of success comes from
going global. Alibaba has not really spent too much energy overseas yet,
although it has made a number of smaller acquisitions. This is likely
to change.
As Jack Ma put it in his recent investor letter: “In the past decade,
we measured ourselves by how much we changed China. In the future, we
will be judged by how much progress we bring to the world.”
Sohu Finance says one upshot of the IPO is the way it is shaping new
perceptions of China’s internet firms. It notes that past listings
tended to reinforce the view on Wall Street that China’s online giants
were copycats of business models born in Silicon Valley. Thus Baidu was
referred to as China’s Google, Renren as China’s Facebook and Sina Weibo
as China’s Twitter.
“Of course, there are still many people calling Alibaba China’s
Amazon,” writes Sohu Finance. “But this time there are a growing number
of Wall Street investors realising that this title is not accurate.” In
fact, many have given up trying to apply a simile to Ma’s creation.
...
Oh yes, so why didn’t it list domestically?
Some wonder why Alibaba didn’t list in Shanghai – where enthusiasm for buying into the IPO would have been intense.
But Doug Young, who writes the Young China Biz blog, says that this
was never a realistic option since Alibaba is incorporated outside China
(a common practice among Chinese venture-backed tech firms).
“Such overseas incorporation has not only barred internet giants like
Tencent and Baidu from listing in China, but has also locked out other
major names like China Mobile and Lenovo, which are also technically
incorporated outside China for historical reasons,” he notes. Read more detalied report at
Week in China.