Going Gaga Over Alibaba

What do Midland Railway and IBM have in common? The answer is they were the largest companies by market capitalisation in the UK and the US when each country reached the apex of its economic dominance in 1914 and 1967 respectively.

Both firms were emblematic of their era. Midland Railway was the biggest coal hauler in the country that had ushered in the industrial revolution. IBM was the leading hardware manufacturer at the dawn of the computer age when American consumers were the envy of the world.But the two examples also highlight how fleeting global hegemony can be.

Few now remember the railway firm, which lost its independence after the First World War thanks to the Railways Act. IBM may still be a colossus, but it no longer ranks in the top 20 global companies in market cap terms.

In fact, when the New York Stock Exchange opens later today, IBM is also likely to be eclipsed by Alibaba, the company now best symbolising China’s ascendance on the world stage. The e-commerce giant priced its IPO in New York last night at $68 per share to the thunderous applause of global investors.

How gigantic is the deal?
Should the greenshoe be exercised, Alibaba’s flotation will raise $25 billion and rank as the world’s largest, beating Agricultural Bank of China’s $22.1 billion debut in 2010. When founder Jack Ma rings the opening bell, Alibaba’s market cap will be $177.5 billion, similar in size to Samsung Electronics. However, the stock price is expected to be much higher by closing on its first day, fuelled by newspaper hype and insistent demand from investors. Enthusiasm for the deal has been overwhelming, notwithstanding the fact that many investors have placed inflated orders to try to get some kind of allocation. The frustrated purchasing power of unallocated institutions, combined with the mass of retail investors who were unable to get into the IPO at all, could easily push the stock up into the stratosphere over the coming few days.
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How is it likely to perform?
What happens to Alibaba after the initial fanfare dies down depends on what investors believe about its prospects for growth. Shareholders are unlikely to reap the same upside as investors in rivals Tencent and Baidu, which both listed a decade ago when they were less than five years old. Tencent has risen 150-fold since its June 2004 IPO, for example.

Alibaba is now 15 years old, so can we expect similar growth? There are numerous jumbo IPOs of companies with relatively mature business models which have still done well for investors. The most famous is Visa, which listed in March 2008 and still ranks as the largest IPO on record by a US firm. It rose 28% on its first day of trading and has quintupled since then.
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A century of upside?
Jack Ma has no such qualms about Alibaba’s future. In the company’s pre-roadshow filing, he wrote a letter to prospective investors explaining how the company is only at the beginning of a 102-year journey, that will span three separate centuries from its inception in 1999.

Alibaba is not a mature business, its management says. Rather, its digital ecosystem will disrupt and transform all that it touches to the benefit of its Chinese customers and, increasingly, its global ones too.

A few years ago, Alibaba identified three pillar industries. In many respects it has only made inroads into the first one – e-commerce.
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And outside China?
For many Chinese companies, their hallmark of success comes from going global. Alibaba has not really spent too much energy overseas yet, although it has made a number of smaller acquisitions. This is likely to change.

As Jack Ma put it in his recent investor letter: “In the past decade, we measured ourselves by how much we changed China. In the future, we will be judged by how much progress we bring to the world.”

Sohu Finance says one upshot of the IPO is the way it is shaping new perceptions of China’s internet firms. It notes that past listings tended to reinforce the view on Wall Street that China’s online giants were copycats of business models born in Silicon Valley. Thus Baidu was referred to as China’s Google, Renren as China’s Facebook and Sina Weibo as China’s Twitter.

“Of course, there are still many people calling Alibaba China’s Amazon,” writes Sohu Finance. “But this time there are a growing number of Wall Street investors realising that this title is not accurate.” In fact, many have given up trying to apply a simile to Ma’s creation.
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Oh yes, so why didn’t it list domestically?
Some wonder why Alibaba didn’t list in Shanghai – where enthusiasm for buying into the IPO would have been intense.

But Doug Young, who writes the Young China Biz blog, says that this was never a realistic option since Alibaba is incorporated outside China (a common practice among Chinese venture-backed tech firms).

“Such overseas incorporation has not only barred internet giants like Tencent and Baidu from listing in China, but has also locked out other major names like China Mobile and Lenovo, which are also technically incorporated outside China for historical reasons,” he notes. Read more detalied report at Week in China.